Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.48 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun to move down from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target of 147.08.

Yesterday's decent US consumer confidence data, which rose to 97.4, led to a slight strengthening of the dollar and a modest decline in the yen that continued during today's Asian session. This trend reflects the market's perception that the US economy, despite global challenges, demonstrates relative resilience, backed by consumer confidence. The dollar's strengthening versus the yen—a traditional safe-haven currency—suggests a short-term easing of fears about a global recession. Investors, seeing solid US macroeconomic figures, prefer to invest in dollar-denominated assets, putting additional pressure on the yen.

It's worth noting that the Bank of Japan's cautious, wait-and-see monetary policy also plays a significant role in yen weakness. In the near future, the dynamics of USD/JPY will depend on various factors, including further macroeconomic data from the US and Japan, as well as central bank decisions.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry area around 147.95 (indicated by the green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a growth to 148.36 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.36, I plan to exit buys and open shorts in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 pip move back from the level). It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and substantial drawdowns in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just starting to rise from this level.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 147.70 price while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 147.95 and 148.36 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 147.70 level (red line on the chart) is broken and updated, which will likely drive the pair downward quickly. The key target for sellers will be 147.33, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (looking for a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and is just starting to decline from this level.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 147.95 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will cap the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 147.70 and 147.33.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.