Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 147.26 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar and resulting in a small 10-point rise.

Further USD/JPY direction will depend on U.S. Q2 GDP data and initial jobless claims. These indicators play a key role in shaping expectations for the U.S. dollar against the yen, especially given current global market volatility.

The GDP release is a major event since economic growth often strengthens the national currency. If results exceed analysts' forecasts and show significant expansion, this may support the dollar. Improved U.S. economic performance usually boosts expectations of steady monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, attracting investors seeking higher returns. On the other hand, jobless claims data can also strongly influence the exchange rate. An increase in claims may point to rising unemployment and worsening financial conditions, reducing confidence in the dollar. Traders monitor these figures closely as they may signal potential policy changes and slower economic growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 147.20 (green line on the chart) with a target at 147.60 (thicker green line). Around 147.60, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal from the level). The pair may only rise if the data is strong.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning its upward move.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 146.97 when the MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth could be expected toward 147.20 and 147.60.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a move below 146.97 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline. The main target for sellers will be 146.62, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal from the level). Pressure on the pair will return only if the data is very weak.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward move.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of 147.20 when the MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline could be expected toward 146.97 and 146.62.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – projected Take Profit or manual profit-taking level, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – projected Take Profit or manual profit-taking level, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – use overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.