Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The price test at 1.1652 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Eurozone lending and money supply data fully matched economists' forecasts, which caused no reaction in the currency markets. This highlights traders' caution ahead of key U.S. data. Still, analyzing credit dynamics, it is evident that new loan volumes remain high, which is certainly positive for the European economy.

In the second half of the day, data will be released on initial jobless claims, U.S. Q2 GDP changes, and pending home sales. These indicators significantly influence market expectations and can have a notable impact on exchange rates. Since the labor market remains a vital component of the economy, unemployment statistics provide important insights into its overall state. A decline in claims may indicate rising confidence among consumers and businesses, leading to higher spending and investment. This could strengthen the dollar as investors seek safety in more stable currencies during potential risks.

On the other hand, GDP changes serve as an indicator of overall economic health. If subsequent reports show growth, this may also lead to a stronger U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible at around 1.1674 (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.1708. At 1.1708, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected after weak U.S. statistics.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning its upward move.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1645 when the MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth could be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1674 and 1.1708.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1645 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1606, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point reversal from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return if the U.S. statistics are strong.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward move.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1674 when the MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline could be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1645 and 1.1606.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – projected Take Profit or level to fix profit manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – projected Take Profit or level to fix profit manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market fluctuations are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.