Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 160.15 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move higher from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. However, the pair failed to generate any significant upward movement.

It is clear that traders are waiting for further news regarding a peace agreement between the United States and Iran, as well as details of the deal, which could help reduce demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset. Under these conditions, market participants are reluctant to buy USD/JPY aggressively—especially at current highs above 160.00, a zone where the Bank of Japan has frequently demonstrated a willingness to intervene.

Later in the day, several important economic reports are scheduled for release and could have a significant impact on the pair. Data on changes in U.S. industrial production will be an important driver for the dollar. Industrial production is a fundamental component of overall economic growth, and fluctuations in this indicator can serve as an early signal of broader economic trends. Market participants should also pay close attention to manufacturing output data. This sector accounts for a substantial share of GDP and often serves as a key engine of economic growth. Analysis of these figures will help form a more comprehensive view of the current state of the U.S. economy and outline possible prospects for its future development.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 160.20 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 160.50 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 160.50, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from that level. Further gains in the pair can be expected today if U.S. economic data come in stronger than expected.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 160.01 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 160.20 and 160.50 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 160.01 level (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.70, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair could return today in the event of central bank intervention.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 160.20 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 160.01 and 159.70 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is often best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.