So far, there's no outright confrontation between crypto bulls and bears, but analysts point to growing tension. The unease is largely tied to Bitcoin's shaky performance, which has been sliding throughout the week. Some expect that Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium could bring relief for BTC.

On Thursday, August 21, Bitcoin traded sideways, hovering at $113,778, down 6.3% over the past seven days. Traders are split almost evenly, with nearly half taking long positions and the other half shorting. Still, many analysts believe the crypto market's long-term bullish structure remains intact.

Ahead of Powell's remarks on Friday, August 22, most Bitcoin traders are bracing for rate uncertainty. With mixed macro signals and shifting investor sentiment, the direction for both US equities and crypto remains unclear.

The July CPI report had been a bullish trigger, fueling hopes of Fed rate cuts and sending Bitcoin to record highs in early August. But the latest CPI release reignited inflation fears, clouding expectations for Fed policy in 2025. As a result, Bitcoin slipped 8% to $114,170 and below, retreating from the $124,128 peak hit on August 14 — marking a week-long decline.

Powell's question: to cut or not to cut? Despite Bitcoin's pullback, markets still price in an 85% chance of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. John Haar, managing director at Swan Bitcoin, expects Powell to remain "relatively neutral, to keep his options open." He noted that Bitcoin and other crypto assets are highly sensitive to global liquidity and should respond positively to dovish Fed signals.

But a hawkish tone from Powell could trigger another wave of selling across stocks and crypto. Analysts stress, however, that short-term rate jitters won't derail long-term digital asset adoption, supported by institutional inflows and favorable White House policy.

Retail traders' dilemma: bear market or buy the dip? The sharp drop below $113,000 sparked panic selling among retail investors, pushing the market into a distinctly bearish mood. Yet analysts see this as a classic "buy-the-dip" opportunity.

"Retail traders made a 180-degree shift after Bitcoin failed to recover and broke below $113,000," noted analytics firm Santiment, questioning whether the next bullish cycle is just around the corner.

Market pullbacks during bull runs are considered normal — Bitcoin's so-called "bear traps" have appeared time and again in past cycles.

If history repeats itself and Bitcoin faces a similar depth of correction in 2025, the flagship asset could retreat to $90,000 as early as next month. However, experts conclude that a subsequent rebound to a new all-time high remains possible.

Will September bring new lows for Bitcoin?

In the current environment, the crypto community is trying to determine where Bitcoin might find its bottom. Many analysts and market participants do not rule out a decline of the most capitalized cryptocurrency to $100,000 or even lower.

Analyst Doctor Profit believes Bitcoin could bottom in the $90,000–$93,000 range this September. He is convinced that a "real crash" is ahead, though he allows for a recovery phase after the September drop. Trader Captain Faibik shares a similar outlook, suggesting Bitcoin could be targeting $100,000 in September.

Other community members are leaning toward more optimistic scenarios. Crypto enthusiast Benjamin Cowen argues that BTC will likely move down toward a level defined by moving averages — a trajectory that does not imply breaking below $100,000. Still, like his peers, Cowen is bracing for a "red" September.

The most bullish investors expect the incredible: a surge to $200,000 fueled by a Fed rate cut. At present, markets price the odds of such a decision at 84.9%. Any policy shift could enhance the appeal of high-risk assets like digital currencies and bring greater clarity to the outlook.