Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 148.80 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move upward from the zero line, confirming a proper entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by only 20 points, after which demand decreased.

Next, we expect US labor market statistics, specifically job openings and hiring data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While this indicator does not have a strong impact on the currency market, it may prepare investors for the more important August labor market data due Friday. Another important event will be the release of the factory orders report. Growth in this figure is generally interpreted as a positive factor for the US economy, indicating increased business activity and potential expansion of manufacturing. Conversely, a decline in orders may generate concerns about future economic growth prospects.

The day will end with a speech by FOMC member Neel Kashkari. His statements and their context should be treated with maximum seriousness.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 148.80 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 149.34 level (thicker green line on the chart). Near 149.34, I will exit long positions and open short trades in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from this level). You can rely on pair growth only after strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.46 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 148.80 and 149.34 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the 148.46 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 147.97, where I will exit short trades and immediately open long trades in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return today with weak data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.80 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 148.46 and 147.97 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit or manual profit-taking is appropriate, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit or manual profit-taking is appropriate, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make trading decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly result in the total loss of your deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, for successful trading you must have a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.