The British pound remains in the same position as the euro. At this point, nothing depends on the pound itself, on British statistical releases, or even on the actions of the Bank of England. Persistent decline in demand for the US dollar is allowing the pound to rise in price. The current wave count for GBP/USD is almost identical to that for the euro. If this is correct, then corrective waves 4 and 2 in 5 have been completed. If so, further price increases are inevitable.

The most important factor for further appreciation of the pound, in my view, is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the BoE. As I've said before, the Fed is 99% likely to resume its easing cycle in September and is expected to continue lowering rates regularly and frequently. Meanwhile, the BoE faces an inflation rate twice the normal level and will likely not be able to conduct rounds of easing anytime soon.

Among the upcoming UK economic events, we can note the July GDP report and industrial production for the same period. GDP is expected to show 0% growth, but everyone has long grown accustomed to such a sluggish pace in the UK economy. Industrial production is also forecast by economists to "change" by exactly 0%.

However, as mentioned, at present, British economic data has almost no influence on the pound. I think everyone will agree that the pound's rally is in no way connected to domestic UK reports or the economy. Therefore, the week's primary focus should be on US data and American events. Let's remember, the global trade war is not over and has not even entered a de-escalation stage. Washington has signed several very favorable trade deals, but Trump continues to introduce new tariffs, albeit at a slower pace than in spring and summer 2025. Summer's data showed exactly how the US economy responds to trade tariffs.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis, EUR/USD continues building an upward trend segment. The wave structure still depends entirely on news driven by Trump's decisions and US foreign policy. The trend targets may reach as high as the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to favor buys with targets around 1.1875 (the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and higher. I assume wave 4 is complete, so now is a good time to buy.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD wave structure is unchanged. We are in a bullish, impulsive phase of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may see many shocks and reversals that could strongly impact the wave picture, but for now, the working scenario is intact. The targets for the bullish move are now around 1.4017. I believe the downward wave 4 is complete; wave 2 in 5 may also be complete or near completion. Thus, I recommend longs with a target at 1.4017.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and prone to change.
2. If you are unsure of the market, it's better to stay out.
3. You can never be 100% confident of price direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can (and should) be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.