Today, Bitcoin has reached another monthly high, rising to $81,300, while Ethereum has climbed to $2,387.

Despite the encouraging rise in the value of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which might hint at the approaching start of a new bullish market in digital assets, there is a serious threat that could undermine these positive trends at any time. This threat originates not from within the crypto industry, but from external geopolitical factors. The situation in the Middle East, which seemed relatively stable just yesterday, has undergone significant changes. Reports from various American media sources indicate that the US is on the verge of resuming large-scale military actions against Iran.

Such developments carry not only serious humanitarian and political risks but are also bound to have a deep impact on global financial markets. During periods of heightened geopolitical tension, traders typically prefer to shift their assets into safer classes, such as traditional currencies or government bonds. Digital assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, despite their growing popularity and institutional recognition, are still perceived by many as riskier instruments. Consequently, amid a potential military conflict, we could see capital outflow from the cryptocurrency market, leading to a significant correction or even a prolonged bearish trend.

A spike in profit-taking from short-term Bitcoin holders, noted by analytical platforms like Glassnode and Santiment, only adds fuel to the fire. This indicates that some traders who have realized quick profits are ready to exit their positions at the first sign of danger, which could accelerate price declines if negative geopolitical developments arise. Thus, despite the internal positive signals, the short-term future of the cryptocurrency market is strongly in question, determined more by events in the Middle East than by technological or economic factors within the industry itself.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum in anticipation of the continued development of a long-term bullish market, which has not gone away.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $80,140, with a target increase to $81,100. At around $81,100, I intend to exit my purchases and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the lower boundary of $79,600 if there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction back to the levels of $80,100 and $81,100.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $79,600, with a target decline to $78,500. At around $78,500, I intend to exit my sales and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $80,100 if there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction back to the levels of $79,600 and $78,500.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at the entry point around $2,380, with a target price of $2,402. At around $2,402, I intend to exit my purchases and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower boundary of $2,360 if there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction back to the levels of $2,380 and $2,402.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,360, with a target decline to $2,330. At around $2,330, I intend to exit my sales and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $2,380 if there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction back to the levels of $2,360 and $2,330.