Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1475 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros.

Today's trading sessions in Europe are unlikely to be filled with significant economic events. However, in the first half of the day, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index for June 2026 is scheduled for publication. This indicator is a key measure of consumer demand. A deterioration in this index could put considerable pressure on the euro momentarily. If the consumer confidence data show some stabilization or even moderate growth, it will be interpreted as a positive signal for the Eurozone economy.

We are also expecting speeches from two key figures in the European monetary world: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. Their statements may shed light on the ECB's future steps in managing monetary policy, especially amid inflationary challenges. Lagarde's words will be particularly crucial for understanding prospects for interest rates, inflation expectations, and assessing risks to economic growth.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel's speech will also carry significant weight, given Germany's role as the largest economy in the Eurozone and the traditionally more cautious position of its central bank.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I may buy euros if the price reaches near 1.1475 (green line on the chart), with a goal of rising to 1.1512. At 1.1512, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 pip move from the entry point. One can only expect the euro to rise after receiving strong data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1448 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1475 and 1.1512.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1448 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1411, where I will exit the market and buy back immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return if reports are very weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1475 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1448 and 1.1411.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.