The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly and cautiously on Monday. As usual, there were plenty of news items, almost all of which concerned the U.S.-Iranian negotiations and events in the Middle East. Each news agency presented its interpretation of what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz and in Switzerland, where the first round of negotiations took place on Sunday. For instance, some media outlets noted progress in the talks, as the parties agreed on a further meeting schedule and the order of discussion. It was reported that the U.S. has lifted the blockade on Iranian ports, allowed oil exports from Iran, and unfrozen some Iranian assets. One could say that Washington, and personally, Donald Trump, kept their word.
However, at the same time, other media highlighted new threats from Trump towards Iran if a nuclear deal is not reached. Trump, in his characteristic manner, stated in an interview that if Iran refuses to sign an agreement regarding enriched uranium and ballistic missiles, he will deliver a new devastating blow and Iran will be wiped off the map. Nothing new here. In addition, Trump threatened to take control of the Strait of Hormuz if Iran did not lift its blockade.
Speaking of the blockade, according to some news outlets, Iran imposed a new blockade on Sunday in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Recall that neither Israel nor Lebanon was included in the agreement between Trump and Iran, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed dissatisfaction with this fact. Since Israel did not sign any agreements, it has no obligations to either Iran or Lebanon. Therefore, Israeli forces remain in Lebanon, and Israel continues to strike Hezbollah positions.
Iran considers this a "violation of the conditions of the agreement" with Trump, which is why it announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz last night. As a result, on Monday, it was completely unclear whether the strait was open or closed. Additionally, several important unresolved issues remain. It begins with Israel, which refuses to end the war with Lebanon. Furthermore, it remains unclear what concessions Iran and the U.S. are willing to make in the nuclear negotiations. A few days ago, Trump stated that Iran has the right to have nuclear weapons for its self-defense. But we all know that in one day, Trump can make several contradictory statements. If Washington "allows" Iran to possess a certain amount of enriched uranium and missiles, a deal could indeed be possible. In our opinion, Tehran is unlikely to completely abandon enrichment and weapons with nuclear fuel. As Trump urgently needs to conclude the war, Washington is forced to make concessions. Of course, the question arises as to why a war in Iran was needed if, in the end, the country will still have nuclear fuel? However, only the American president can answer this question. Yet, he is unlikely to want to do so...
The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days as of June 23 is 75 pips, which is considered "average." We expect movement in the pair between 1.1362 and 1.1512 on Tuesday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating the continuation of the downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area for the second time and formed a "bullish" divergence, which warns of a potential end to the downward trend.
Nearest Support Levels:
S1 – 1.1414
S2 – 1.1353
S3 – 1.1292
Nearest Resistance Levels:
R1 – 1.1475
R2 – 1.1536
R3 – 1.1597
Trading Recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, presumed to be a correction within a global upward trend, as seen on the daily or weekly timeframes. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative; however, 2026 is shaping up to be super-positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, followed by the Federal Reserve's readiness to raise the key interest rate. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1362 and 1.1353. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets of 1.1597 and 1.1658. The resolution of the conflict in the Middle East has not created any problems for the dollar. Bears are currently very strong, but the daily timeframe shows sideways movement, limiting the potential for dollar growth.
Explanations for Illustrations:
Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend;
The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day based on current volatility indicators;
The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.
