Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

No tests of the levels I indicated took place during the first half of the day.

In the morning, the pair's upside was limited by weak industrial order data from Germany and retail sales figures from Italy. Low market volatility didn't allow prices to reach any of the specified levels, so I remained out of the market.

During the U.S. trading session, price fluctuations may narrow even further, as markets are closed in observance of Independence Day in the United States. This will significantly reduce trading volume, potentially slowing price dynamics and confining the pair within tight ranges. Market participants are advised to remain cautious and avoid risky tactics.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:Today, buying the euro is possible after a price reaches the level of 1.1787 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1822. At 1.1822, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A significant upward move in the euro today is unlikely.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1765 twice consecutively, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.1787 and 1.1822 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1765 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1728, where I plan to exit the market and buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move in the other direction. Selling pressure is unlikely to return today.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1787 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.1765 and 1.1728 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as growth above this point is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as a decline below this point is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, use the overbought and oversold zones as a guide

Important:Beginner Forex traders must make market entry decisions very carefully. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you're not using money management and trading large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for any intraday trader.