Macroeconomic Report Review:

There are once again very few macroeconomic releases scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are important. In the US today, we'll see the Q2 GDP report as well as unemployment claims data. The GDP will be the second estimate, which is much less important than the first or third, and even for those, market reactions are not always strong. Therefore, there are no significant reports today.

Fundamental Events Review:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, the only notable one is the speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller. Recall that fierce debates continue in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September. Christopher Waller is a Trump supporter and an openly dovish member, so there's little doubt about the tone of his remarks. However, there still aren't enough dovish votes in the FOMC to ensure a rate cut. Still, by September 17, the Committee's alignment could change.

At best for the dollar, the Fed will not cut its key interest rate in September. However, this is a highly questionable support factor for the US currency, as monetary policy would remain unchanged in that case. A Fed rate cut is brewing in the US, but when it will happen and how quickly further cuts follow is unclear. Donald Trump continues to pressure the FOMC and seeks to reshape its membership to make the central bank controllable.

The trade war remains an important factor for traders. Since there are no signs of de-escalation, we also see no reason for medium-term dollar buying. This week, Trump raised tariffs to 50% for India. As before, the US currency can only count on local rallies based on technical factors or isolated events/reports, but nothing more.

General Conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs will again be trading based on technical indicators. The euro may form a sell signal near the 1.1655–1.1666 area, indicating a potential new local decline toward 1.1571. The pound sterling last night formed a new sell signal near 1.3518–1.3532, so a drop is also possible here. However, keep in mind that there are very few factors favoring dollar strength, and volatility may again remain low today.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.