Bitcoin has entered a phase of elevated uncertainty. Amid declining prices and weakening momentum, large holders have begun moving long-dormant coins. According to CryptoQuant, approximately 15,965 BTC that had remained idle for nearly three years were transferred on Wednesday at a price of around $108,000—equivalent to roughly $1.7 billion.
Moves of this scale rarely occur without reason. In past market cycles, the activation of these "sleeping" coins often coincided with the end of rally phases and the start of corrections.
However, the current situation is more nuanced. These transfers may represent more than profit-taking—they could signal internal portfolio rebalancing or preparations for institutional redistribution.
To analysts, such transactions serve as signals that long-term expectations may be shifting. When long-term holders begin moving funds after prolonged silence, it's an indicator that strategies are being reassessed amid growing uncertainty.
New Whales at Risk: Unrealized Losses Add Selling Pressure
At the other end of the market are the so-called new whales—large addresses that entered during recent months at an average cost of around $113,000. At current prices, they are carrying unrealized losses nearing $7 billion.
The psychological factor plays a critical role here. Unrealized losses often trigger panic selling, especially among participants with short-term investment horizons. This is why, according to Glassnode, over 22,000 BTC have been sold daily since July—a volume substantial enough to influence market dynamics.
Still, there's no sign of total capitulation. Analysts also observe countertrends: over the last few days, approximately 26,500 BTC have flowed into accumulation wallets—indicating that some investors are actively buying the dip. This reflects a precarious balance between selling pressure and accumulation—a market clash between fear and rationality.
Bitcoin Options at Historic Highs: A Market Bracing for Volatility
While the spot market shows signs of fatigue, the derivatives segment is experiencing unprecedented activity. Deribit has reported a record high in open interest in Bitcoin options—$50.27 billion in total—an all-time peak that underscores the extent to which traders are hedging against potential downside.
The bulk of interest centers on put options with a $100,000 strike price. Their combined notional value exceeds $2 billion, putting them nearly on par with call options at $120,000 and $140,000. The market is pricing in a wide range of movement, leaving room for both a downward continuation and potential recovery.
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers emphasized that this growth in open interest "reflects the maturity of the market and its ability to adapt to any phase—be it rally, pullback, or consolidation."
Volatility Eases, But Risks Remain
Despite the increased interest in options, total open interest in Bitcoin futures has dropped by about 30%, according to Glassnode. This suggests a reduction in short-term speculative positions and a shift toward more balanced strategies.
Such capital rotation typically precedes a consolidation phase. Volatility declines, impulsive moves become less frequent, and directional movement is then governed by underlying fundamentals—spot demand and the behavior of long-term holders.
Key Support Zone: $107,000–$108,000
From a technical standpoint, the $107,000–$108,000 range remains the market's key support area. This zone hosts substantial buy-side limit orders, which have been keeping the price from falling further. A loss of this area could open the way to $100,000, while a recovery above $113,000 would signal renewed buyer activity.
Glassnode warns: "If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $113,100, the proportion of coins held at a loss will sharply rise, intensifying market stress and increasing the risk of capitulation by newer investors."
Long-Term Outlook: Institutions Remain Committed
Despite the short-term cool off, the long-term sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Institutional players continue to build exposure to crypto. Galaxy Digital reported record quarterly revenue of $29 billion, suggesting ongoing interest from professional investors.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat and Arthur Hayes of BitMEX are still forecasting price targets in the $200,000–$250,000 range, citing post-halving supply constraints and the potential influx of capital from traditional financial markets.
Even more conservative figures, such as Mike Novogratz, acknowledge that the market's fundamental structure has strengthened, and that recent months of volatility have not broken the broader long-term uptrend.
